By Meg Peters
Review Co-Editor
In a meeting that altered the way the Lake Orion School administration perceived the district’s declining enrollment, it was settled’the story had to be changed.?
‘What’s really significant is we have been extremely concerned about the exodus of our students, and with this deep dive into the data we are really seeing this whole concept has changed the story,? Superintendent Marion Ginopolis said. ‘The conversation needs to change.??
The story, as Ginopolis defines it, was that enrollment was declining because families were fleeing the district.?
According to Assistant Superintendent Rick Arnett’s ten-year enrollment analysis, however, families are not fleeing, the district is ‘aging out.??
‘Our senior class size this year is 589 students. When our senior class enrolled in 2003-04 there were 570 students, so we’ve gained 19 students,? he said.?
The shrinkage, however, is in the size of the graduating classes.?
In the 2014-2015 school year, 612 resident seniors graduated from the district, however, only 483 kindergartners enrolled this year to replace them. So technically, the district lost 129 resident students. Resident students are students pulled directly from within the district rather than Schools of Choice students who can enroll from outside of Orion Township.?
The same goes for 2013-2014, when 618 resident seniors graduated: only 497 kindergarteners enrolled the following year, tallying the overall loss to 121 students.?
There is no doubt enrollment has shrank, but it is because 12 years ago more kindergarteners were entering the district than today.?
In the 2002-03 year, 623 kindergartners enrolled, and in 2003-04 507 enrolled, compared to this year’s 483, and last year’s 497.?
But, each class level has remained relatively consistent, from kindergarten to twelfth grade, Arnett argues.?
In 2014-2015, 612 seniors graduated, and when those students enrolled back in 2002-03 there were 623, only 12 students off, not 100.?
‘I think it really changes the narrative when you hear someone say, ‘we are losing enrollment.? To me that takes on a negative connotation because there’s got to be a reason why,? Arnett said. ‘I think the data shows we’re not losing enrollment. If one family moves out, another family is moving in to replace those students, so we are just as attractive as we are to people moving out.?
The story then becomes, what to do with a smaller group of kids.?
For the next three years Arnett predicts that graduating classes will be larger than enrollment by roughly 100 students.?
‘We are leveling off and leveling off very quickly, and in the next two to three years those numbers will be very consistent,? he said. ‘I think we can project for the next five to seven years that our average incoming kindergarten class size will be between 500 and 525 students. As we plan for facility usage, and as we think about programming for the future, we need to keep those figures in mind.??
So, the story becomes a question of facilities.?
Ginopolis said this new information is critical in determining the number of students per school over the next several years, especially at the elementary level if only 500 students, not 600, are enrolling.?
Should the district operate six elementary schools at 500 kids each??
Or four elementaries at 700 each??
Of the seven elementary schools in operation, total populations (including SOC students) are as follows:?
Blanche Sims: 328?
Pine Tree: 441
Carpenter: 465
Paint Creek: 499
Stadium: 502
Webber: 518
Orion Oaks: 601