About a week before Christmas the editorial staff at The Citizen newspaper polled some local meteorologists regarding the chances of a white Christmas for residents in the Atlas, Brandon and Groveland township areas.
Based on the assumption Santa and his reindeer need about an inch of snow to land, area weather professionals are pretty confident Christmas Day will be white.
‘Chances are better than even to about an 80 percent chance we’ll have snow at Christmas in the Northern Oakland, southern Genesee county area,? said Jerry Hodak, WXYZ-TV7. ‘It might not be fresh snow on Christmas Day and it may be sunny with temperatures cold, about 28 to 32 degrees.?
Hodak says that the northern sections of Oakland County in Brandon and Groveland townships areas along with parts of Atlas Township in Genesee county toward Lapeer have a little bit more snow historically than other local regions.
‘It’s more of a snow belt area,? he said.
Since 1965, Jerry Hodak has been a meteorologist, and today he’s WXYZ-TV (Channel 7 in Detroit) Action News? Chief Meteorologist and Science Editor. He runs metro Detroit weather center and delivers the Doppler 7 forecast to Action News viewers at 5, 6, 7 & 11 p.m.
‘Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.?
So goes the song and snow, at least on the ground, is also what Chuck Gaidica says we’ll have for Christmas. But the WDIV weatherman also has some data to back his prediction that Ortonville will have a white Christmas.
‘We’re headed for some unusual cold,? said Gaidica director of meteorology at Channel 4 since 1987. ‘High pressure systems are coming in from Canada with very cold, dry air. To have a snowy winter, the jet stream will have to come further south. We’re beginning to see that now. The switch has been flipped.?
A few weeks ago, Gaidica would have thought the Detroit metro area would be having a drizzly Christmas but says the area has now moved from rainy days to a colder pattern, the first ingredient for a white Christmas.
The two-time Emmy award-winning meteorologist and inventor of the ‘cuddle alert,? forecasts a storm coming in on Dec. 23, with it snowing actively on both Dec. 23 and 24.. With this information, he predicts there is better than a 50-50 chance there will be snow on the ground for Christmas. ‘It’s a really good bet,? he said.
The average snowfall for the season is 41 inches of snow, measured at Detroit Metro Airport. Gaidica said the winter forecast this year will have ups and downs, with some really good bursts of cold and snow, but also some mild days.
Overall it will be an average Michigan winter and, he added, ‘Since I have the power, I’m going to issue a ‘cuddle alert? for the entire winter season.?
J.R. Kirtek, chief meteorologist at WJRT-TV12, is a familiar face to many Goodrich and Hadley-area residents.
‘It looks like we’ll have a white Christmas,? he says.
As of Dec. 14, Kirtek predicts temperatures will drop, remain lower than average through year’s end, and the state will get ‘occasional little pulses of snow’from the northwest.
‘Surprisingly it’s only about 50 percent of the time that we get a white Christmas,? said Kirtek, ‘which is about an inch of snow.?
‘You can be more liberal by saying a white Christmas is a nice little coating of snow, and the percentage goes up.?
Kirtek, a meteorologist since 1985, didn’t mind stacking his predictions against those of other forecasters.
‘When you get this close to Christmas you should be able to make a reputable forecast,? he said.
‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac? ‘a staple in many gardeners? libraries since 1792’predicts a white Christmas as well, says OFA senior editor Mare-Anne Jarvela of Dublin, N.H.
‘Looking at Region 6 (Detroit) from the 18th to 25th of December, first there’s rain that could turn to ice or snow and mild snow showers. No big snow storm but still some snow.?
The OFA has an 80 percent accuracy rate, said Jarvela.
How are OFA predictions made?
‘Forecasts are based on a secret formula that the first editor came up with. We use part of it still.
‘He believed sunspot activity accounted (for weather changes). We also look at weather history, modern technology, computer models, ocean currents,? she said.
It’s a misconception that the OFA bases predictions only on natural clues.
‘We’re not just looking at caterpillars and squirrels,? said Jarvela.’We can’t wait for nature, we go to the printer in mid-July.?
An early print date means their Christmas forecast is published 18 months ahead of time.
Although Jarvela wouldn’t reveal what’s in store for the 2006 edition, Michigan residents may wish to save the largest portion of their heating budget for March 2005.
Winter weather started mild, but the state will see record low temperatures in 2005 until around March, she said, before the weather warms in April.
Extra-cold winter temperatures may be a trend for the next two years, says Jarvela.
More weather information from ‘The Old Farmer’s Almanac? can be found at www.almanac.com.